V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.62%
increased by 1.67%
1 Week
17.74%
increased by 1.79%
1 Month
18.14%
increased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7702 | 8.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 34.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9852 | 532.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0803 | 5.86*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices