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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

17.62%

increased by 1.67%

1 Week

17.74%

increased by 1.79%

1 Month

18.14%

increased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7702
8.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0869
34.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9852
532.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0803
5.86***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days