IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
18.37%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
18.46%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
18.78%
decreased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 8.31 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.7713 | 2.27** |
| αscore | 0.0892 | 8.62*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9846 | 133.44*** |
| νDF | 8.3108 | 1.42 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.7713 | 2.27** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0892 | 8.62*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9846 | 133.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3108 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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