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IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.41%

increased by 0.57%

1 Week

13.69%

increased by 0.85%

1 Month

14.68%

increased by 1.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 8.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7593
2.19**
αARCH0.0870
8.71***
βGARCH0.9851
133.05***
νDF8.0751
1.47

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7593
2.19**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0870
8.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9851
133.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0751
1.47

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days