V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.80%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
12.18%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
13.44%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7627 | 8.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0871 | 34.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9851 | 530.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0605 | 5.88*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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