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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.80%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

12.18%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

13.44%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7627
8.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0871
34.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9851
530.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0605
5.88***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days