V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
15.54%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
15.73%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
16.40%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 8.07 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7580 | 2.20** |
| αARCH | 0.0869 | 8.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9851 | 132.98*** |
| νDF | 8.0734 | 1.47 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7580 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 8.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9851 | 132.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0734 | 1.47 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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