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IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

12.56%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

12.89%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

14.02%

increased by 0.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 8.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7606
2.19**
αARCH0.0871
8.72***
βGARCH0.9851
133.09***
νDF8.0762
1.47

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7606
2.19**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0871
8.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9851
133.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0762
1.47

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days