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IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

18.37%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

18.46%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

18.78%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 8.31 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.7713
2.27**
αscore0.0892
8.62***
βpersistence0.9846
133.44***
νDF8.3108
1.42

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.7713
2.27**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0892
8.62***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9846
133.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3108
1.42

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days