Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.39%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
18.37%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
18.30%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2708 | 12.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0807 | 34.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9794 | 572.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0256 | 7.17*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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