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Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

15.96%

increased by 0.99%

1 Week

16.04%

increased by 1.07%

1 Month

16.33%

increased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2708
12.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0807
34.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9794
572.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0256
7.17***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days