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Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

23.06%

increased by 4.89%

1 Week

22.87%

increased by 4.70%

1 Month

22.21%

increased by 4.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Nov 5, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-lifev = 8.42 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3289
3.70***
αscore0.0871
9.42***
βpersistence0.9794
168.71***
νDF8.4187
1.54

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3289
3.70***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0871
9.42***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9794
168.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4187
1.54

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days