Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
23.06%
increased by 4.89%
1 Week
22.87%
increased by 4.70%
1 Month
22.21%
increased by 4.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-lifev = 8.42 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3289 | 3.70*** |
| αscore | 0.0871 | 9.42*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9794 | 168.71*** |
| νDF | 8.4187 | 1.54 |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3289 | 3.70*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0871 | 9.42*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9794 | 168.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4187 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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