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Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.53%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

15.63%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

15.97%

decreased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC

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graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-lifev = 7.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2691
3.02***
αARCH0.0789
8.62***
βGARCH0.9800
147.06***
νDF7.0331
1.78*

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2691
3.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0789
8.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9800
147.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0331
1.78*

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days