V-Lab
Dow Jones South Africa Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.89%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
16.99%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
17.32%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.46) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0870 | 9.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8860 | 87.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4558 | 6.39*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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