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V-Lab

Dow Jones South Africa Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.89%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

16.99%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

17.32%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.46) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0192
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0870
9.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8860
87.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4558
6.39***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days