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V-Lab

NASDAQ 100 AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.37%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

16.81%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

18.31%

increased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

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graph of NASDAQ 100 AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.64) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0077
0.75
αARCH0.0929
12.78***
βGARCH0.8911
115.48***
γleverage0.6448
6.04***

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0077
0.75
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0929
12.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8911
115.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6448
6.04***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days