V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.36%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
16.80%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
18.30%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.64) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0079 | 0.77 |
| αARCH | 0.0932 | 12.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8908 | 115.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.6430 | 6.02*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0079 | 0.77 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 12.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 115.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6430 | 6.02*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices