V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.37%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
16.81%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
18.31%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.64) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0077 | 0.75 |
| αARCH | 0.0929 | 12.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8911 | 115.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.6448 | 6.04*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 0.75 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0929 | 12.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8911 | 115.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6448 | 6.04*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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