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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

16.81%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

16.90%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

17.22%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0077
1.53
αARCH0.0912
11.41***
βGARCH0.8868
109.00***
γleverage0.5042
8.92***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0077
1.53
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0912
11.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8868
109.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5042
8.92***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days