V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
27.37%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
27.35%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
27.25%
decreased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.56) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0059 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0860 | 41.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9019 | 427.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5624 | 29.27*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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