Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
37.87%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Week
37.64%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Month
36.78%
decreased by 2.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.56) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0059 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0855 | 41.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9026 | 428.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5598 | 29.09*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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