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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

37.87%

decreased by 1.61%

1 Week

37.64%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Month

36.78%

decreased by 2.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.56) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0059
3.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0855
41.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9026
428.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5598
29.09***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days