Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
24.16%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
24.01%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Month
23.49%
decreased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0471 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.1242 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8490 | 23.36*** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0471 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1242 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8490 | 23.36*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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