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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

45.90%

decreased by 2.13%

1 Week

45.67%

decreased by 2.36%

1 Month

44.79%

decreased by 3.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0221
22.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0451
19.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9098
468.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0747
16.25***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days