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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

28.77%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Week

28.74%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Month

28.62%

decreased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 07:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0226
22.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0454
19.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9089
463.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0753
16.23***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days