V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
21.02%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
21.12%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
21.51%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 169% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 169% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0228 | 5.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0452 | 4.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9085 | 116.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0764 | 4.12*** |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0228 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0452 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9085 | 116.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0764 | 4.12*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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