V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
31.14%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
31.08%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
30.85%
decreased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 168% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0223 | 22.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0450 | 19.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9095 | 467.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0756 | 16.39*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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