V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
45.90%
decreased by 2.13%
1 Week
45.67%
decreased by 2.36%
1 Month
44.79%
decreased by 3.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0221 | 22.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 19.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9098 | 468.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0747 | 16.25*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
Other Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices