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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

21.02%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

21.12%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Month

21.51%

decreased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 169% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 169% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0228
5.66***
αARCH0.0452
4.90***
βGARCH0.9085
116.29***
γleverage0.0764
4.12***

0.992

Persistence

86d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0228
5.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0452
4.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9085
116.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0764
4.12***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days