Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
28.77%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
28.74%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
28.62%
decreased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 07:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0226 | 22.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0454 | 19.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9089 | 463.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0753 | 16.23*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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