Straits Times Index STI GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.80%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
19.80%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Month
19.82%
decreased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 154% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0257 | 6.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0727 | 5.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8550 | 74.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.1120 | 3.81*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0257 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0727 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8550 | 74.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1120 | 3.81*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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