Straits Times Index STI GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.84%
increased by 1.49%
1 Week
13.12%
increased by 1.77%
1 Month
14.09%
increased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0254 | 27.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 22.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8558 | 300.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1111 | 15.12*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices