Straits Times Index STI GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
12.63%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
12.93%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
13.94%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:11 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 151% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 151% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0259 | 6.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0736 | 5.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8542 | 74.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.1111 | 3.78*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0259 | 6.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 5.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8542 | 74.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1111 | 3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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