Straits Times Index STI GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
18.49%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Week
18.54%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Month
18.70%
decreased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 153% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0256 | 6.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0726 | 5.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8554 | 74.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.1112 | 3.80*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0256 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 5.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8554 | 74.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1112 | 3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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