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Straits Times Index STI GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

10.76%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

11.16%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

12.50%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC

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graph of Straits Times Index STI GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 153% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0252
6.77***
αARCH0.0720
5.65***
βGARCH0.8567
75.63***
γleverage0.1101
3.77***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0252
6.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0720
5.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8567
75.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1101
3.77***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days