V-Lab
Straits Times Index STI GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
11.19%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
11.57%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
12.83%
increased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 153% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0253 | 6.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0721 | 5.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8564 | 75.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.1105 | 3.78*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0253 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0721 | 5.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8564 | 75.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1105 | 3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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