Hong Kong Hang Seng Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
17.79%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
18.05%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
18.94%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 183% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 183% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0414 | 4.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0410 | 3.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9035 | 97.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.0751 | 3.50*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0414 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0410 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9035 | 97.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0751 | 3.50*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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