Hong Kong Hang Seng Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.75%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
18.97%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
19.73%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 184% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0417 | 19.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0412 | 13.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9030 | 387.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0757 | 14.04*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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