V-Lab
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.80%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
16.17%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
17.41%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 184% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 184% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0416 | 4.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0411 | 3.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9031 | 96.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.0756 | 3.51*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0416 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0411 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9031 | 96.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0756 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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