V-Lab
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
16.21%
increased by 0.56%
1 Week
16.58%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
17.92%
increased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 128% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0298 | 6.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0837 | 7.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9157 | 94.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3704 | 4.10*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0569 | 7.00*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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