Hong Kong Hang Seng Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
24.23%
1 Week
24.33%
1 Month
24.66%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 127% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0296 | 6.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0835 | 7.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9159 | 95.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.3687 | 4.11*** |
| δpower | 1.0583 | 7.01*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0296 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0835 | 7.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9159 | 95.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3687 | 4.11*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0583 | 7.01*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices