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Hong Kong Hang Seng Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

24.23%

increased by 4.51%

1 Week

24.33%

increased by 4.61%

1 Month

24.66%

increased by 4.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 127% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 127% more than positive returnsδ = 1.06 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0296
6.07***
αARCH0.0835
7.89***
βGARCH0.9159
95.14***
γleverage0.3687
4.11***
δpower1.0583
7.01***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0296
6.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0835
7.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9159
95.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3687
4.11***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0583
7.01***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days