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V-Lab

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

16.21%

increased by 0.56%

1 Week

16.58%

increased by 0.93%

1 Month

17.92%

increased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 128% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0298
6.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0837
7.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9157
94.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3704
4.10***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0569
7.00***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days