V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
12.83%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
13.08%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
13.94%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0276 | 35.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0850 | 37.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9067 | 441.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8416 | 29.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0387 | 38.40*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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