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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

12.83%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

13.08%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

13.94%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0276
35.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0850
37.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9067
441.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8416
29.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0387
38.40***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days