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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

11.77%

decreased by 1.48%

1 Week

11.41%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Month

10.42%

decreased by 2.83%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0294
39.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1948
66.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7898
263.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2885
39.34***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9776
32.34***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days