Dow Jones Industrial Average Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
13.08%
1 Week
12.58%
1 Month
11.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0293 | 9.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1946 | 16.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7899 | 66.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.2874 | 9.86*** |
| δpower | 0.9800 | 8.11*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0293 | 9.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1946 | 16.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7899 | 66.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2874 | 9.86*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9800 | 8.11*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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