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Dow Jones Industrial Average Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

13.08%

increased by 1.58%

1 Week

12.58%

increased by 1.08%

1 Month

11.22%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 79% more than positive returnsδ = 0.98 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0293
9.80***
αARCH0.1946
16.64***
βGARCH0.7899
66.20***
γleverage0.2874
9.86***
δpower0.9800
8.11***

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0293
9.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1946
16.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7899
66.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2874
9.86***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9800
8.11***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days