V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.77%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Week
11.41%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Month
10.42%
decreased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0294 | 39.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1948 | 66.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7898 | 263.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2885 | 39.34*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9776 | 32.34*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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