V-Lab
Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
5.98%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
5.95%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
5.85%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
μ
APMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0051 | 2.06** |
| αARCH | 0.0367 | 2.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9217 | 40.85*** |
| γleverage | -0.0253 | -0.28 |
| δpower | 2.0093 | 5.69*** |
0.959
Persistence16d
Half-lifeμ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0051 | 2.06** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0367 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9217 | 40.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0253 | -0.28 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0093 | 5.69*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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