Nikkei 225 Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
32.16%
1 Week
29.89%
1 Month
24.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0572 | 8.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.2059 | 17.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7700 | 59.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.2257 | 8.66*** |
| δpower | 0.9678 | 6.41*** |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0572 | 8.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2059 | 17.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7700 | 59.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2257 | 8.66*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9678 | 6.41*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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