Nikkei 225 Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
34.25%
increased by 1.97%
1 Week
31.71%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
25.29%
decreased by 6.99%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0576 | 34.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2066 | 69.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7690 | 237.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2246 | 34.52*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9672 | 25.42*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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