V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.80%
decreased by 2.85%
1 Week
18.56%
decreased by 4.09%
1 Month
15.55%
decreased by 7.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.80 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0527 | 42.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2233 | 71.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7511 | 222.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2029 | 33.09*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8027 | 24.56*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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