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V-Lab

NASDAQ Composite Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

13.71%

decreased by 2.13%

1 Week

13.32%

decreased by 2.52%

1 Month

12.34%

decreased by 3.50%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 39% more than positive returnsδ = 0.81 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0528
10.55***
αARCH0.2241
17.95***
βGARCH0.7503
55.60***
γleverage0.2008
8.26***
δpower0.8140
6.22***

0.928

Persistence

9d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0528
10.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2241
17.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7503
55.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2008
8.26***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8140
6.22***

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days