V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
13.71%
1 Week
13.32%
1 Month
12.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0528 | 10.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.2241 | 17.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7503 | 55.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.2008 | 8.26*** |
| δpower | 0.8140 | 6.22*** |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0528 | 10.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2241 | 17.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7503 | 55.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2008 | 8.26*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8140 | 6.22*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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