NASDAQ Composite Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.97%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
21.07%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
21.39%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 310% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0326 | 35.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0955 | 42.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8998 | 457.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5514 | 23.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1368 | 38.15*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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