Skip to main content
V-Lab

NASDAQ Composite Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

20.97%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

21.07%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

21.39%

decreased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 310% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0326
35.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0955
42.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8998
457.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5514
23.37***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1368
38.15***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days