Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
14.02%
1 Week
14.38%
1 Month
15.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 210% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0256 | 6.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.0951 | 11.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9018 | 103.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.3494 | 6.91*** |
| δpower | 1.5503 | 10.44*** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0256 | 6.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0951 | 11.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9018 | 103.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3494 | 6.91*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5503 | 10.44*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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