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Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.24%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

14.58%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

15.80%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0272
5.62***
αARCH0.0423
5.53***
βGARCH0.8963
111.64***
γleverage0.1040
4.19***

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0272
5.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0423
5.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8963
111.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1040
4.19***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days