Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.28%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
14.62%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
15.85%
increased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 247% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0276 | 22.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 22.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8957 | 443.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1049 | 16.73*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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