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V-Lab

Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.28%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

14.62%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

15.85%

increased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 247% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0276
22.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0425
22.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8957
443.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1049
16.73***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days