Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.24%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
14.58%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
15.80%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0272 | 5.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0423 | 5.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8963 | 111.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.1040 | 4.19*** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0272 | 5.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0423 | 5.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8963 | 111.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1040 | 4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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