V-Lab
Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.83%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
15.15%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
16.30%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0275 | 22.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 22.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8959 | 445.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1045 | 16.74*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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