FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
23.97%
increased by 0.96%
1 Week
23.89%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
23.58%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 231% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 231% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0300 | 5.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0340 | 3.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9100 | 94.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0785 | 3.43*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0300 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0340 | 3.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9100 | 94.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0785 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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