V-Lab
FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.76%
decreased by 1.95%
1 Week
35.26%
decreased by 2.45%
1 Month
33.44%
decreased by 4.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Jun 18, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0169 | 8.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0809 | 34.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8966 | 354.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5468 | 22.46*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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