Russell Midcap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.38%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
12.82%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
14.18%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1082 | 9.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8613 | 69.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.6183 | 7.08*** |
0.970
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1082 | 9.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8613 | 69.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6183 | 7.08*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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