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V-Lab

Russell Midcap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

13.64%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

13.98%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

15.05%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell Midcap Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.1088
9.68***
βGARCH0.8607
68.79***
γleverage0.6198
7.05***

0.970

Persistence

22d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1088
9.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8607
68.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6198
7.05***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

22 days