V-Lab
Russell Midcap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.64%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
13.98%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
15.05%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1088 | 9.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8607 | 68.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.6198 | 7.05*** |
0.970
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1088 | 9.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8607 | 68.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6198 | 7.05*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
Other Russell Midcap Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices