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Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

12.55%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

12.80%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

13.61%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0270
4.20***
αARCH0.0073
0.67
βGARCH0.8871
92.80***
γleverage0.1653
6.66***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0270
4.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0073
0.67
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8871
92.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1653
6.66***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days