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Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

14.88%

increased by 0.68%

1 Week

15.00%

increased by 0.80%

1 Month

15.39%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0272
4.17***
αARCH0.0071
0.65
βGARCH0.8869
92.51***
γleverage0.1663
6.65***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0272
4.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0071
0.65
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8869
92.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1663
6.65***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days