Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.55%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
12.80%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
13.61%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0270 | 4.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0073 | 0.67 |
| βGARCH | 0.8871 | 92.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.1653 | 6.66*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0270 | 4.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0073 | 0.67 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8871 | 92.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1653 | 6.66*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
Other Russell Midcap Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices