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V-Lab

Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.06%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

13.28%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

14.02%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0272
16.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0069
2.51**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8872
369.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1663
26.49***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days