V-Lab
Russell Midcap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.77%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
13.01%
increased by 1.06%
1 Month
13.80%
increased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0272 | 16.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0069 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8872 | 369.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1663 | 26.49*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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