Russell Midcap Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.46%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
14.63%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
15.20%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0068 | 0.69 |
| αARCH | 0.1486 | 8.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9757 | 197.32*** |
| γleverage | -0.1269 | -8.47*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0068 | 0.69 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1486 | 8.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9757 | 197.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1269 | -8.47*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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