Russell Midcap Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.83%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
12.08%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
13.01%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0072 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1483 | 35.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9755 | 781.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1282 | -34.08*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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