V-Lab
MSCI Europe EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
10.46%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
10.74%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
11.74%
increased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 0.11 |
| αARCH | 0.1553 | 6.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9691 | 141.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.1396 | -8.40*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 0.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1553 | 6.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9691 | 141.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1396 | -8.40*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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