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V-Lab

MSCI Europe EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

10.46%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

10.74%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

11.74%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
0.11
αARCH0.1553
6.84***
βGARCH0.9691
141.57***
γleverage-0.1396
-8.40***

0.969

Persistence

22d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
0.11
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1553
6.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9691
141.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1396
-8.40***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days