MSCI Europe Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.94%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
11.20%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
12.08%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1051 | 6.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.1239 | 11.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8545 | 79.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.14 |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1051 | 6.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1239 | 11.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8545 | 79.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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