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V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI Europe Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.94%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

11.20%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

12.08%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1051
6.83***
αARCH0.1239
11.35***
βGARCH0.8545
79.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.14

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1051
6.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1239
11.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8545
79.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.14

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days