MSCI Europe Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.42%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
14.55%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
14.99%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1311 | 6.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1221 | 10.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8581 | 78.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 0.51 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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