MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.37%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
14.50%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
14.93%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0266 | 20.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0028 | 0.87 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8771 | 354.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1934 | 30.75*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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