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V-Lab

MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

11.26%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

11.58%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

12.63%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0276
5.43***
αARCH0.0047
0.38
βGARCH0.8722
90.39***
γleverage0.1966
7.94***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0276
5.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0047
0.38
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8722
90.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1966
7.94***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days