MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
11.26%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
11.58%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
12.63%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0276 | 5.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0047 | 0.38 |
| βGARCH | 0.8722 | 90.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.1966 | 7.94*** |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0276 | 5.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0047 | 0.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8722 | 90.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1966 | 7.94*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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