Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.01%

increased by 2.73%

1 Week

14.16%

increased by 2.88%

1 Month

14.64%

increased by 3.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0276
5.44***
αARCH0.0046
0.38
βGARCH0.8721
90.32***
γleverage0.1969
7.94***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0276
5.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0046
0.38
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8721
90.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1969
7.94***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days