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V-Lab

MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

8.56%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

9.11%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

10.80%

increased by 2.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0266
20.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0028
0.87
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8771
354.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1934
30.75***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days