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V-Lab

MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

14.07%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

14.21%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

14.69%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0277
5.44***
αARCH0.0046
0.37
βGARCH0.8717
90.16***
γleverage0.1977
7.96***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0277
5.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0046
0.37
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8717
90.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1977
7.96***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days