V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.23%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
19.79%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
21.48%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0963 | 3.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0973 | 2.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8470 | 32.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.0414 | 0.90 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0963 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 2.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8470 | 32.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0414 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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