V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.93%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.97%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
18.89%
increased by 3.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 43% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0967 | 12.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 11.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8466 | 128.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0418 | 3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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