Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
20.26%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
20.73%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
22.16%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0965 | 3.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0973 | 2.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8469 | 32.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.0416 | 0.90 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0965 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 2.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8469 | 32.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0416 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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