Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, November 1st, 2026
1 Day
38.71%
decreased by 2.88%
1 Week
38.01%
decreased by 3.58%
1 Month
35.68%
decreased by 5.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 29, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0969 | 3.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0977 | 2.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8463 | 32.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.0424 | 0.92 |
0.965
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0969 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 2.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8463 | 32.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0424 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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