V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
22.09%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
22.41%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
23.39%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0962 | 12.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 11.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8477 | 130.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0411 | 3.57*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices