V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.98%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
18.37%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
21.22%
increased by 4.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0819 | 12.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7546 | 41.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0650 | 9.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5659 | 1.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7723 | 1.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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