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V-Lab

Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026

1 Day

20.79%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

21.32%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

23.82%

increased by 2.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0820
12.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7535
41.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0644
8.99***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5620
1.21
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7759
1.15
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.868

Half-life:

5 days