V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
20.79%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
21.32%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
23.82%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0820 | 12.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7535 | 41.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0644 | 8.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5620 | 1.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7759 | 1.15 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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