Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 18th, 2026
1 Day
22.42%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
22.39%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
22.30%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8466 | 4.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1209 | 6.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8410 | 30.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0059 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 0.0078 | 2.03** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8466 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1209 | 6.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8410 | 30.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0059 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 0.0078 | 2.03** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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