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V-Lab

Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026

1 Day

14.12%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

14.82%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

16.85%

increased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8439
4.16***
αARCH0.1214
6.21***
βGARCH0.8406
30.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0061
-1.94*
γ20.0080
2.09**

0.962

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8439
4.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1214
6.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8406
30.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0061
-1.94*
γ20.0080
2.09**

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days