V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
9.15%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
9.44%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
10.35%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1655 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0913 | 8.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8789 | 72.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1340 | -2.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.2568 | 3.52*** |
| γ3 | -0.2533 | -5.14*** |
| γ4 | 0.2508 | 5.17*** |
| γ5 | -0.2031 | -4.45*** |
| γ6 | 0.1022 | 2.52** |
| γ7 | 0.0051 | 0.13 |
| γ8 | -0.0489 | -1.10 |
| γ9 | 0.0372 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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