V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.20%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
10.44%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
11.19%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2017 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 8.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8786 | 72.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1288 | -2.66*** |
| γ2 | 0.2506 | 3.46*** |
| γ3 | -0.2514 | -5.12*** |
| γ4 | 0.2485 | 5.15*** |
| γ5 | -0.1998 | -4.40*** |
| γ6 | 0.0997 | 2.47** |
| γ7 | 0.0042 | 0.10 |
| γ8 | -0.0433 | -0.96 |
| γ9 | 0.0308 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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