V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.12%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
12.23%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
12.58%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2032 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 8.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8788 | 72.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1303 | -2.68*** |
| γ2 | 0.2535 | 3.49*** |
| γ3 | -0.2539 | -5.14*** |
| γ4 | 0.2497 | 5.15*** |
| γ5 | -0.1992 | -4.36*** |
| γ6 | 0.0984 | 2.42** |
| γ7 | 0.0040 | 0.10 |
| γ8 | -0.0407 | -0.89 |
| γ9 | 0.0279 | 0.84 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
Other S&P BSE SENSEX Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices