Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

FTSE 100 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

13.53%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

13.65%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

14.06%

increased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9821
10.39***
αARCH0.1043
11.42***
βGARCH0.8755
91.75***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.23

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9821
10.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1043
11.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8755
91.75***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.23

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days