FTSE 100 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.80%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
12.95%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
13.48%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9826 | 10.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.1044 | 11.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8754 | 91.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | 0.23 |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9826 | 10.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 11.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8754 | 91.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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