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V-Lab

FTSE 100 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.01%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

11.27%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

12.12%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

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graph of FTSE 100 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9842
10.35***
αARCH0.1047
11.42***
βGARCH0.8751
91.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.25

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9842
10.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1047
11.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8751
91.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.25

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days