V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
9.74%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
10.32%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
11.66%
increased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8334 | 229.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1870 | 49.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0053 | 6.20*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0363 | 6.57*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9580 | 151.94*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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