V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.07%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
11.48%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
12.53%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8334 | 228.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1870 | 49.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0053 | 6.19*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0364 | 6.57*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9579 | 151.47*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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