V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
9.60%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
10.19%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
11.55%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8336 | 229.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1872 | 49.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0052 | 6.22*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0361 | 6.60*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9582 | 153.31*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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