V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.46%
increased by 2.00%
1 Week
16.72%
increased by 2.26%
1 Month
17.58%
increased by 3.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 399% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0313 | 3.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8817 | 108.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.1249 | 9.26*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.7872 | 0.15 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0004 | 0.00 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0313 | 3.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8817 | 108.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1249 | 9.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.7872 | 0.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0004 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
Other IBEX 35 Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices