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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

15.76%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

16.06%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

17.07%

increased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0311
9.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8820
452.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1248
31.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.7944
0.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days