Skip to main content
V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

12.27%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

12.84%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

14.63%

increased by 2.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 400% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0313
10.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8816
451.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1251
31.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5878
0.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1128
0.00

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days