IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.80%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
17.04%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
17.84%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0312 | 9.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8816 | 451.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1252 | 31.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.7988 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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