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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

16.80%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

17.04%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

17.84%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0312
9.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8816
451.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1252
31.52***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.7988
0.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days