V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
12.27%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
12.84%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
14.63%
increased by 2.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 400% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0313 | 10.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8816 | 451.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1251 | 31.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.5878 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1128 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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