V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.72%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
12.38%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
13.47%
increased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 378% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0378 | 9.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7858 | 105.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1429 | 22.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0049 | 3.75*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0477 | 6.46*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9508 | 124.11*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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