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V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.92%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

14.04%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

14.47%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 372% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 372% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0380
2.31**
βGARCH0.7894
37.67***
γleverage0.1412
7.25***
λ₁tau intercept0.0047
1.96**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0468
4.86***
λ₃tau persistence0.9518
101.94***

0.898

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
2.31**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7894
37.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1412
7.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0047
1.96**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0468
4.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9518
101.94***

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days