S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
13.92%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
14.04%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
14.47%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 372% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 372% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0380 | 2.31** |
| βGARCH | 0.7894 | 37.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.1412 | 7.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0047 | 1.96** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0468 | 4.86*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9518 | 101.94*** |
0.898
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0380 | 2.31** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7894 | 37.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1412 | 7.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0047 | 1.96** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0468 | 4.86*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9518 | 101.94*** |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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