S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
15.64%
increased by 2.74%
1 Week
15.26%
increased by 2.36%
1 Month
14.61%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 373% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 373% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0379 | 2.30** |
| βGARCH | 0.7886 | 37.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.1413 | 7.24*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0047 | 1.94* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0470 | 4.88*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9516 | 102.01*** |
0.897
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7886 | 37.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1413 | 7.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0047 | 1.94* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0470 | 4.88*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9516 | 102.01*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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