V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
10.24%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
10.54%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
11.33%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 376% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 376% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0379 | 2.30** |
| βGARCH | 0.7873 | 37.28*** |
| γleverage | 0.1424 | 7.27*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0047 | 1.92* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0477 | 4.89*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9509 | 100.68*** |
0.896
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7873 | 37.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1424 | 7.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0047 | 1.92* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0477 | 4.89*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9509 | 100.68*** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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