Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.72%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

12.38%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

13.47%

increased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 378% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0378
9.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7858
105.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1429
22.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0049
3.75***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0477
6.46***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9508
124.11***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days