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V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

17.37%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

17.63%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

18.62%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~127 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0250
6.63***
αARCH0.1701
9.04***
βGARCH0.7951
73.12***
γleverage0.0586
2.10**

0.995

Persistence

127d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0250
6.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1701
9.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7951
73.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0586
2.10**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

127 days