S&P BSE SENSEX Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.97%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
17.24%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
18.27%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~126 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0251 | 6.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.1701 | 9.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7951 | 73.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0586 | 2.11** |
0.995
Persistence126d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 6.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1701 | 9.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7951 | 73.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0586 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
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