S&P BSE SENSEX Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.33%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
13.74%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
15.18%
increased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 35% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0257 | 26.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1703 | 36.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7943 | 290.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0594 | 8.47*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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