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V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

18.05%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

18.21%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

18.76%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 89% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0352
7.53***
αARCH0.0967
7.89***
βGARCH0.8421
97.66***
γleverage0.0860
3.86***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0352
7.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0967
7.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8421
97.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0860
3.86***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days