V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
18.05%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
18.21%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
18.76%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 89% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0352 | 7.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0967 | 7.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8421 | 97.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.0860 | 3.86*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0352 | 7.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0967 | 7.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8421 | 97.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0860 | 3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
Other Dow Jones Transportation Average Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Equity Indices