Dow Jones Transportation Average Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
23.00%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
22.97%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
22.85%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 88% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 88% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0351 | 7.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.0968 | 7.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8423 | 98.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0854 | 3.84*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0351 | 7.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 7.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8423 | 98.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0854 | 3.84*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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