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Dow Jones Transportation Average Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

23.00%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

22.97%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

22.85%

decreased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 88% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 88% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0351
7.55***
αARCH0.0968
7.94***
βGARCH0.8423
98.04***
γleverage0.0854
3.84***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0351
7.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0968
7.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8423
98.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0854
3.84***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days