V-Lab
S&P MidCap 400 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.68%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
11.97%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
12.92%
increased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 171% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 171% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0239 | 8.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0876 | 6.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8183 | 78.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.1499 | 6.92*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0239 | 8.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0876 | 6.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8183 | 78.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1499 | 6.92*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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