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V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

11.68%

increased by 0.42%

1 Week

11.97%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

12.92%

increased by 1.66%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 171% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 171% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0239
8.03***
αARCH0.0876
6.66***
βGARCH0.8183
78.03***
γleverage0.1499
6.92***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0239
8.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0876
6.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8183
78.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1499
6.92***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days