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V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

13.68%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

13.92%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

14.57%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0038
0.50
βGARCH0.8576
86.07***
γleverage0.1705
12.61***
λ₁tau intercept0.0050
1.99**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0331
3.53***
λ₃tau persistence0.9629
89.60***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0038
0.50
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8576
86.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1705
12.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0050
1.99**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0331
3.53***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9629
89.60***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days