V-Lab
S&P MidCap 400 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.68%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
13.92%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
14.57%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0038 | 0.50 |
| βGARCH | 0.8576 | 86.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.1705 | 12.61*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0050 | 1.99** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0331 | 3.53*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9629 | 89.60*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0038 | 0.50 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8576 | 86.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1705 | 12.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0050 | 1.99** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0331 | 3.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9629 | 89.60*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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