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V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.51%

decreased by 5.19%

1 Week

4.22%

decreased by 3.48%

1 Month

32.26%

increased by 24.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7314
34.47***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3547
26.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-