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V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

2.19%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Week

4.32%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

34.74%

increased by 30.99%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0071
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0141
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7209
27.02***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3454
24.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0187
0.45

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-