S&P MidCap 400 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.80%
increased by 0.78%
1 Week
14.13%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
15.17%
increased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.63) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0008 | 0.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0935 | 49.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 422.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6331 | 42.04*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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