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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.99%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

17.30%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

18.46%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 255 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~255 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0100
0.96
αARCH0.0646
6.93***
βGARCH0.9327
93.37***
γleverage0.4672
3.71***

0.997

Persistence

255d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0100
0.96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0646
6.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9327
93.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4672
3.71***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

255 days