Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
17.78%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
18.07%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
19.17%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 260 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0100 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0649 | 27.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9325 | 370.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4681 | 14.79*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
260 days
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