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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

17.78%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

18.07%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

19.17%

increased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 260 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0100
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0649
27.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9325
370.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4681
14.79***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

260 days