V-Lab
TOPIX 100 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.90%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
16.32%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
17.63%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1993 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.60) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0239 | 9.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1003 | 42.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8677 | 349.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6015 | 27.85*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices