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TOPIX 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

20.28%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

20.32%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

20.47%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of TOPIX 100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1993 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8623
9.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0724
39.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9854
608.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6648
7.55***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days