V-Lab
TOPIX 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.28%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
20.32%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
20.47%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1993 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8623 | 9.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0724 | 39.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 608.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6648 | 7.55*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices