V-Lab
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
10.53%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
10.77%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
11.62%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 6.96 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4495 | 1.54 |
| αARCH | 0.0829 | 9.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9899 | 145.98*** |
| νDF | 6.9639 | 1.89* |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4495 | 1.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 145.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9639 | 1.89* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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