V-Lab
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.28%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
13.43%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
13.95%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 6.98 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4484 | 1.55 |
| αARCH | 0.0829 | 9.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9898 | 145.90*** |
| νDF | 6.9806 | 1.88* |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4484 | 1.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 9.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9898 | 145.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9806 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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