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Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.35%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

13.49%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

14.01%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 6.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4500
1.56
αARCH0.0829
9.08***
βGARCH0.9898
146.12***
νDF6.9892
1.87*

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4500
1.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
9.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9898
146.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9892
1.87*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days