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Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

13.28%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

13.43%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

13.95%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

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graph of Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 6.98 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4484
1.55
αARCH0.0829
9.09***
βGARCH0.9898
145.90***
νDF6.9806
1.88*

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4484
1.55
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
9.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9898
145.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9806
1.88*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days