Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.18%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
15.27%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
15.60%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 69-day half-lifev = 7.32 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.4619 | 1.57 |
| αscore | 0.0837 | 9.24*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9900 | 148.07*** |
| νDF | 7.3219 | 1.76* |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.4619 | 1.57 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0837 | 9.24*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9900 | 148.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3219 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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