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S&P SmallCap 600 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.87%

increased by 0.88%

1 Week

14.98%

increased by 0.99%

1 Month

15.42%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysv = 10.76 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.6968
2.16**
αscore0.0834
10.19***
βpersistence0.9915
220.57***
νDF10.7642
1.27

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.6968
2.16**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0834
10.19***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9915
220.57***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.7642
1.27

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days