V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.83%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
16.95%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
17.39%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:53 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 258% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 258% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0101 | 1.86* |
| αARCH | 0.1574 | 11.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9775 | 299.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.0886 | -8.30*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0101 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1574 | 11.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9775 | 299.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0886 | -8.30*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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