V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
12.84%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
13.34%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
14.97%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 1994 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0407 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2084 | 12.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7703 | 69.68*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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