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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.67%

increased by 1.73%

1 Week

16.92%

increased by 1.98%

1 Month

17.77%

increased by 2.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0406
2.71***
αARCH0.2079
12.92***
βGARCH0.7708
70.02***

0.979

Persistence

32d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0406
2.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2079
12.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7708
70.02***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days