S&P SmallCap 600 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.67%
increased by 1.73%
1 Week
16.92%
increased by 1.98%
1 Month
17.77%
increased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0406 | 2.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.2079 | 12.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7708 | 70.02*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0406 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2079 | 12.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7708 | 70.02*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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