Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Dow Jones Composite Average MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.75%

increased by 0.41%

1 Week

11.11%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

12.25%

increased by 1.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Composite Average MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0259
2.68***
αARCH0.3349
15.24***
βGARCH0.6429
38.60***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0259
2.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3349
15.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6429
38.60***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days