Dow Jones Composite Average EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
12.17%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
12.35%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
13.00%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 0.14 |
| αARCH | 0.1412 | 9.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9737 | 199.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.1086 | -7.38*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 0.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1412 | 9.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9737 | 199.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1086 | -7.38*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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