V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
16.01%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
16.64%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
18.75%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0407 | 4.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.2622 | 6.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9542 | 95.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.0454 | -1.95* |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0407 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2622 | 6.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9542 | 95.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0454 | -1.95* |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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