Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
20.59%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
20.93%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
22.01%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 41% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0412 | 16.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2633 | 25.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9539 | 377.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0452 | -7.73*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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