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Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

16.01%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

16.64%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

18.75%

increased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

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graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0407
4.03***
αARCH0.2622
6.33***
βGARCH0.9542
95.03***
γleverage-0.0454
-1.95*

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0407
4.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2622
6.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9542
95.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0454
-1.95*

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days